How To Bet On Over/Under Betting Markets With Pinnacle

By Conrad Castleton

15 Dec 2023

Conrad Castleton 15 Dec 2023

Share this article

Learn how to find the average number of goals per game
Calculate the probabilities of over/under
Work our which odds you should bet on

Bettors are always looking for ways to find profitable markets, meaning they have been looking to get away from the match winner market which can often see a solid bet ruined by a freak goal or a late effort out of nowhere.

This is where over/under betting comes into play, with this market allowing you to wager on whether there will be more or less goals than a specific amount in a game.

In this guide to the over/under market, we will show you how to calculate probabilities for the expected amount of goals in a match before turning them into odds.

Step 1: Work out the average number of goals per game

Unlike a number of other sports, scoring is fairly infrequent in soccer, with some games ending without a single goal being scored. Bookmakers will look at the average number of goals scored in each game by the two sides before releasing the odds for their over/under market.

If over 2.5 goals is available at $1.93 and another bookie is offering $1.80 on the same market, you know you are better off with the former. The only question know is whether the market is worth betting in at all?

The best place to start when it comes to assessing whether this market is suitable is to do what the bookmakers do and look at how many goals the teams involved score.

These figures are generally easy to find, and you can either work them out for yourself or you can search for them online. From here, you can work out whether a specific league sees a high number of goals or a lower number of goals on average in each match.

Step 2: Probability calculation

The below table was calculated by John Haigh in his book Taking Chances, which calculates the probability of teams scoring zero, one, two, three or four goals.

Average number of goals	0	1	2	3	4
0.8	45%	36%	14%	4%	1%
1.2	30%	36%	22%	9%	3%
1.6	20%	32%	26%	14%	8%
2.0	14%	27%	27%	18%	14%

If a match sees the home team average 1.2 goals per game and the travelling side averages 0.8 goals, it is easy to work out the probability of teams scoring under 2.5 goals by using the table above.

First, take a look at which score options will see you nail your bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2). You can then work out the respective probabilities for each side from the above table and multiply them together to figure out the probability for each score line.

Score	Probability the home team will score x goals	Probability the away team will score x goals	Probability of exact score
0-0	30%	45%	30%x45%=13.5%
1-0	36%	45%	36%x45%=16.2%
0-1	30%	36%	30%x36%=10.8%
1-1	36%	36%	36%x36%=12.96%
2-0	22%	45%	22%x45%=9.9%
0-2	30%	14%	30%x14%=4.2%

Probability of under 2.5 goals - 67.56%

As we now know the probability of each potential score which can end in under 2.5 goals being the correct bet, we can then add them together to culminate in the chances of a match ending in under 2.5 goals.

In the example, this would be: 13.5%+16.2%+10.8%+12.96%+9.9%+4.2%=67.5%

Step 3: Find the odds that are worth wagering on

After working out the statistical probability of the game ending in less than 2.5 goals, you can now work out which odds you should choose.

Converting probability into decimal odds can be achieved by using the following formula:

Decimal Odds = 100/probability

If the possibility is 67.56% such as in the above example, you would use the equation 100/67.56, which culminates in decimal odds of 1.48.

Simply put, this means that you should only bet on under 2.5 goals if the odds are 1.48 or higher.

Of course, this approach may make you feel like a true mathematician, but nobody can guarantee your bet is a winner. This strategy instead allows you to ensure you are betting at positive expected value.

If you do your research before each match, you can sit back and relax as you wait to see whether your well-informed bet comes in. Again, you cannot guarantee a bet is a winner, but doing your research properly will often put you ahead of many other bettors that choose to blindly bet on their favourite soccer matches.

You can use your new-found knowledge for over/under betting with the huge range of markets with Pinnacle.

Последни новини

Виж всички

Average number of goals	0	1	2	3	4
0.8	45%	36%	14%	4%	1%
1.2	30%	36%	22%	9%	3%
1.6	20%	32%	26%	14%	8%
2.0	14%	27%	27%	18%	14%

Average number of goals	0	1	2	3	4
0.8	45%	36%	14%	4%	1%
1.2	30%	36%	22%	9%	3%
1.6	20%	32%	26%	14%	8%
2.0	14%	27%	27%	18%	14%

Average number of goals	0	1	2	3	4
0.8	45%	36%	14%	4%	1%
1.2	30%	36%	22%	9%	3%
1.6	20%	32%	26%	14%	8%
2.0	14%	27%	27%	18%	14%