NFL Game of the Week: Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady’s on/off retirement is at least an indication that age is beginning to dull the ex-Patriot. His mobility has long gone, but he’s still an above-average passer. He passed for 0.7 yards per attempt further than the average allowed by the defenses he faced in 2021 and with an above-par running game, he helped the Buccaneers score over a touchdown more than the average concession rate of teams they faced.

One of his go-to targets Rob Gronkowski followed Brady into permanent retirement in 2021, injuries have tested the receiving depth chart, the offensive line has also lost bodies, and Brady presents an enticing target for opposing defenses in what must be his swansong.

He’s been noticeably tetchy on the sidelines, especially in the game against the Saints, and his quarterback rating in his two outings so far this season is well below his average seasonal rating and amongst the poorest of his career.

The team went to Brady on 66% of their snaps in 2021, but will need to be less reliant on him this term.

Tampa’s defense kept them competitive as their offense misfired in week two. They have been difficult to score against both so far this season and during last season, and they wrestled turnovers away from the Saints last time out, as the game remained close – a trait they demonstrated in 2021.

That’s probably not a sustainable route to winning the Super Bowl, but it has consolidated their standing in the NFC as they manoeuvre their way through the toughest month of their schedule.

Aaron Rodgers’ relationship with Green Bay has been slightly fractious, latterly with talk of trades, retirement, and a short suspension interspersing the Packers’ regular route to the playoffs. But that has been finally put to bed by a new three-year contract.

They are going for a fourth straight NFC North title under Matt LaFleur and Rodgers is attempting to win a third consecutive MVP award. The latter is much more of a longshot, due mostly to the trade of Davante Adams to Las Vegas.

Adams was tied second as the NFL’s most targeted receiver in 2021, second for receptions, and will be a huge loss for both the Packers and Rodgers as they try to fill the void from the depth chart. They may transition to a more run-heavy approach that will open up passing options, with running backs who will hopefully evolve into a dual-purpose threat.

The Packers were playing catch-up for all of their game against Minnesota, but in a more controlled effort against Chicago, it was the premeditated dual ground threat of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon who monopolised the ball, leaving Rodgers to share a few select passes, spread amongst nine different targets.

The Packers’ defense shared the same traits as Tampa in 2021. Excellent against the pass, much less so on the ground, and on the early showing in 2022, it looks like the home team (the Buccaneers) have taken a step forward, while the Packers have continued to struggle against the run.

Very early preseason lines suggested that this would be a high-scoring game, with totals set around 50 points. But with both offenses facing depleted attacking aerial targets (because of injuries, trades and suspensions), two excellent pass defenses, and a switch in emphasis to the running game, the total has fallen to as low as 41.5.

That may be an overreaction. Brady has made a career of turning yardage into an impressive haul of points, even with a revolving door of receivers and Green Bay won’t have the luxury of a ground-based ball control strategy if the home team get ahead on the scoreboard.

Pinnacle are currently offering Tampa with a -2.5 handicap, which assumes that both teams are of equal quality. Again, this may not accurately represent where both teams are currently at in terms of likely performance.

Tampa’s defense is still better than Green Bay’s, the limited schedule to date has been more difficult for the hosts, and with both offenses working through similar issues, a Tampa win by 24-20 is predicted.