NFL Game of the Week: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

The Bills were unfortunate to meet Patrick Mahomes at his most mercurial in last season’s playoffs, trading almost certain victory for ultimate defeat in the Divisional game, and they’ve continued to go all-in with their recruitment to make the most of the narrow Super Bowl window of opportunity.

Von Miller has arrived fresh from his Super Bowl-winning stint in Los Angeles for the Rams to add even more threat to the edge rushing role, but it’s a move that only makes sense in the very short term. They’ve spent top dollar for an ageing free agent, while also drafting for immediate need, as they make the most of star quarterback Josh Allen’s final year on hugely discounted contract.

In 2021, the Bills were incredibly difficult to pass against, allowing just over five yards per attempt against offenses that usually gained just over six. Run defense was less of a priority for a side that scored quickly and often, but they still ranked within the top half for the NFL and overall they were a top-three defensive unit, who took the ball away from the opposition 30 times in the regular season.

They were also extremely difficult to score against, limiting eight regular-season sides to 14 points or fewer. Their 2022 games have maintained this level of defensive performance, with early season opponents, the defending Super Bowl champions, the Rams and AFC top seed from 2021, the Titans being kept to just 17 points in total.

Their offense inevitably gained the most attention in 2021. Josh Allen possesses the skillset required from a modern quarterback – passing often and with league-average efficiency, while also running with devastating effect, combining both elusiveness and strength.

Relying on Allen is probably not a sustainable route to winning the Super Bowl, but it has consolidated their standing in the NFC as they manoeuvre their way through the toughest month of their schedule.

The Bills score quickly and often, spreading the offensive threat across multiple targets. They exceeded 30 points on nine regular-season occasions and have done so twice already in 2022.

Their 11 regular-season wins in 2021 undersold their performances, their points differential was worthy of around 13 wins and five of their losses were by seven points or fewer. The Bills even played well in their defeat to Miami and remain the legitimate Super Bowl favourites.

2021 was a season to forget for Baltimore, as their three consecutive years of postseason action came to an end and they fell to the bottom of the AFC North for the first time since 2007.

There was good reason for their marginally 8-9 losing record. While they were the highest ranked fourth-placed side in their Conference, injuries hit them hard – quarterback Lamar Jackson was lost for five games and 19 other players were placed on injured reserve.

They underperformed their points differential by around half a win, lost five of their final six games by a field goal or fewer points, and suffered a double-digit turnover differential (which usually tends to regress towards a more benign deficit in future seasons).

They share with the Bills league-average passing efficiency, although they took to the air on just 54% of snaps compared to 59% for the Bills, and both sides have a quarterback who has gears when he takes flight. Jackson already has two rushing touchdowns and 243 yards from 26 rushing attempts through the first three games of 2022.

Defensively, the 2021 Ravens team were a horrible mix of excellent run defense combined with a sieve-like passing unit. They allowed the opposition to pass for nearly a yard further per passing attempt than they achieved on average, yet they still restricted scoring.

That poor passing defense will not sustain a postseason challenge against the cream of the AFC, it fell apart as recently as the fourth quarter against Miami, so we’ll take the visiting Bills to edge the game by 30-24.